| DOI LINK: https://doi.org/10.59671/luWqY |
| Paper ID:luWqY |
| Volume:59 |
| Issue:5 |
| Title:Climate change trends: Forecasting rainfall and maximum temperature variations using 100 Years of climate data in Sri Lanka |
| Abstract:Rainfall and temperature are key components of Earth's climate system, playing a crucial role in shaping climatic dynamics. As such the current study was initiated to examine historical trends and future projections of precipitation and maximum temperature in Sri Lanka from 1922 to 2022. The 100 years of historical climate data were purchase from the department of meteorology, Sri Lanka to analyze and forecast rainfall and maximum temperature variations in Sri Lanka. Trend analysis of historical data reveals a steady increase in maximum temperature, with an average rise of 1.4°C, particularly pronounced since the 1970s, aligning with global warming trends. Rainfall patterns exhibit significant spatial and temporal variability, with a slight overall decline observed across the island. To enhance the spatial representation of climate variables, the Kriging spatial interpolation method was applied, corroborating the trend analysis and providing detailed insights into regional climate variations. The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was used and forecasting was done for next 20 years (2022–2042). Future projections predict a further increase of 0.47°C in average maximum temperature over the next two decades, alongside a marginal decline in rainfall levels. These findings contribute to understanding climate variability and potential future trends in Sri Lanka. By integrating spatial interpolation techniques with time-series forecasting models, this study provides a comprehensive analysis of both the spatial and temporal dynamics of climate change in the country, supporting future climate adaptation and mitigation efforts. |
| Keywords:Forecast, Trend analysis, ARIMA model, Rainfall, Maximum temperature, Sri Lanka |
| Authors:Wasana de Silva, Tharangani Ekanayake |
| Paper PDF Link: View full PDF |